SINGAPORE — As countries and companies globally grapple with the impact of the Iran war and the largest energy shock in history, some say the worst is over, while others see the conflict as a window of opportunity to build on green initiatives and investment.
Speaking in interviews and on panels at the Reuters Next Asia conference in Singapore, executives and officials appeared to shrug off the latest escalation in the Iran war and the on-again-off-again ceasefire talks.
“There are always tail risks and it’s likely that the path to resolution will not be a straight line,” said Rohit Sipahimalani, chief investment officer of Singapore state investor Temasek.
“From a market perspective, the clear transmission is through energy channels and the view is that the worst is behind us, peak uncertainty is behind us, and outside some really ‘tail’ outcomes … this is not going to be a key driver of the market.”
At the heart of the war’s supply chain disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel of water off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes.
Ratcheting up tensions, the US military said on Wednesday (July 8) it launched fresh strikes on Iran to keep the strait open to shipping, triggering Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain.
The latest round of attacks, which the US said was carried out in response to Tuesday’s assault on three cargo ships transiting the strait, came hours after President Donald Trump said he believed an interim ceasefire with Iran was “over”.
Asia, which relies more heavily on crude oil, gas, fuel and fertiliser from the Middle East than other parts of the world, is the most vulnerable to supply disruption.
“We are a big net importer of energy, one of the biggest in Asia, roughly around eight per cent of GDP,” said Thai Vice Finance Minister Santitarn Sathirathai, adding that the war could fuel a new growth engine.
“A lot of the green economy, whether it’s new energy vehicles, solar panels and related industries, those are areas where Thailand already has some capabilities and we can build a lot more upon that.”
Given the scale of the upheaval caused by the war, some say it still could take months for the situation to return to normal.
The Hong Kong Investment Corporation (HKIC) said it remains focused on green energy investments amid volatility in energy markets, which has weighed heavily on global airlines and led to severe travel disruptions as jet fuel prices soared.
“We have always invested or groomed international companies like things such as EcoCeres, focusing on sustainable aviation fuel,” said HKIC CEO Clara Chan.
“The good thing is actually that the fact that there is some market volatility, there will be some change in valuation and for a long-term investor like us with staying power, those could be (the) perfect window to buy.”
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