London: High drama turned into low farce in a matter of hours in British politics after Nigel Farage made an urgent declaration about his future. In an angry address on live television, the populist leader of the right-wing Reform UK party announced that he would test his mandate in a vote by the people, and dared his opponents to join the pivotal battle in a byelection in his own electorate.
Within hours, his opponents chose to toss aside his challenge and mock his indignation. Leaders from Labour, the Greens and the Conservative Party refused to run candidates against him. The only contender who was quick to enter the fight was a comedian who wears a rubbish bin on his head. Count Binface is now making global headlines.
“This will be a people versus the establishment byelection,” Farage said. “It’s a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment – to frankly tell them where to go.” The lines were prepared for a Conservative opponent, but they may not work so well against a silver bin.
In a culture shaped by the Goons and Monty Python, many voters will revel in the absurdity. Farage has given Britain the gift of a political circus that will run for weeks during a blistering summer.
But the test for Farage and his movement is deadly serious. He is dominating the country’s politics with his calls to stop asylum seekers from coming by boat, to deport illegal migrants, scrap net zero, cut foreign aid and restore British values. And he has certainly thrown his opponents into turmoil.
At the same time, though, he has hit a ceiling in political support. Nothing he does seems to vault him to the next level. And he is not the only populist searching for a way to expand a loyal base on the right and turn it into a broader movement that can take command at an election.
In Germany, right-wing leader Alice Weidel of the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is aiming to win two state elections this year and gain power in Berlin at national elections in 2029. In France, Marine Le Pen has vowed to contest the 2027 presidential election for her party, National Rally, despite a court decision requiring her to wear an electronic tag following a conviction for misuse of public funds. This will be her fourth attempt to win the post.
Opinion polls show that all three have an edge over their rivals. Farage and Reform have more support than either Labour or the Conservatives. Weidel and the AfD have gained so much ground that the party is the clear favourite to win state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in September. Two polls show that Le Pen is far ahead of other presidential contenders, even after the court decision.
Australia’s own Pauline Hanson has chosen a lively moment to visit Europe. The One Nation leader has been in Britain with her senior adviser, James Ashby, and is due to speak at a conservative conference in London next week. Hanson has been in national politics so long – certainly longer than Farage and Weidel – that she hardly needs lessons from Europe on how to play the game.
One Nation, with a primary vote of 29 per cent in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, is doing better than Reform on numbers and results. Hanson not only leads in the polls, like Farage, but her party also won the Farrer byelection in May. Farage could not do the same at a key test in northern England last month. Reform was soundly beaten by Labour at the Makerfield byelection, bringing Andy Burnham back to parliament and putting him on course to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.
Farage is a relentless wrecking ball. He assails Labour for allowing asylum seekers to cross the English Channel by boat, and his “stop the boats” clarion call is lifted directly from Tony Abbott’s successful election campaign as Liberal leader in 2013. At the same time, he is merciless against the Conservatives because he reminds voters that net migration surged during 14 years of Conservative rule.
Labour has proven how effective Farage can be. The governing party is only two years into a five-year term in power, but it crumbled under the assault from Reform. Starmer lacked the political skill and the policy results to tough out the Farage attacks. Burnham is more popular, but he has yet to outline a compelling policy program. He is expected to become prime minister on July 20 after an uncontested leadership transfer.
The nagging question for Farage and Reform is whether they have peaked. The party gained 14.3 per cent of the vote at the last election and now has 25 per cent, on latest YouGov opinion poll data. Between those two data points, however, is a more complicated story. A year ago, in a northern summer of real anger over asylum-seeker arrivals, Reform had 28 per cent, sometimes 29 per cent, support.
Farage, in other words, has struggled to win more voters to his cause. His party may attract a protest vote, but the public does not warm to the leader. In a YouGov survey last month, 65 per cent of voters had an unfavourable view of Farage; only 25 per cent were in favour.
One reason is that Farage does not seem to know how to broaden his appeal – or simply has no interest in doing so. His decision to call an unnecessary byelection proves the point: he sought the personal limelight with his announcement but did nothing useful for voters in his electorate. Was he thinking of them at all?
Another reason is former Reform politician Rupert Lowe. He entered parliament in 2024 alongside Reform, then split when bullying claims were made against him. He denied the allegations. Now his party, Restore Britain, is appealing to voters to the right of Farage with policies such as bringing back the death penalty and taking a harder line on deporting migrants.
Conservative US billionaire Elon Musk, having fallen out with Farage, promotes Lowe. And they have a common ally. Lowe praises Tommy Robinson, the anti-immigration agitator who has criminal convictions for assault and fraud. Musk promotes Robinson (whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon) and spoke by video at his right-wing rally in London last September.
This is something Australia has not seen with the rise of Hanson since the last election. The hard right has splintered in Britain just when Farage had finally made it into parliament. The Makerfield byelection last month highlighted the impact: Reform gained 34.5 per cent of the vote and Restore gained 6.8 per cent. In an electoral system that does not allocate preferences, a split on the right could mean they all lose at a general election.
Hanson, who has a long history of falling out with allies who gain power under her brand, is not backing one side or another in the Balkanised right in Britain. She met Robinson on Wednesday to record a podcast, and she is due to meet Farage. But the British split is a warning to the Australians.
Anger over migration remains the key factor in the rise of the European right – and the common theme for Farage, Le Pen and Weidel. All avowedly nationalist, they pledge to turn away asylum seekers and toughen the rules against migrants who seek to arrive legally for work. But they differ sharply in how far they would go.
Simple solution, no clear answer
Weidel concluded a national AfD convention last weekend with a declaration that victory lay ahead in state and national elections. “We are the strongest force. And we will govern,” she said.
The party gathering promoted the key policy of “remigration”, which aims to deport migrants. The idea promises a simple solution for voters who dislike the social change that comes with immigration, even if the policy’s fine print is vague. It could mean expelling failed asylum seekers or migrants who have committed crimes, but the word hints at more sweeping removals.
Is this what mainstream Germany wants? Polls are imprecise guides to popular support at the best of times, and even more so when elections are months or years away. According to recent surveys from the Forsa Institute, the AfD has 26 per cent support nationally, leading the Christian Democratic Union with 22 per cent.
“While the AfD’s support remains largely stable in the west of the country, it is declining in the east,” the Forsa Institute found last month. “It remains to be seen whether this is merely a short-term fluctuation or could become a more sustained trend.”
Le Pen has broken with the AfD in a strategic move to the centre that distances her from more extreme ideas such as rounding up migrants. She has also dropped some of the most dramatic National Rally ideas, such as the “Frexit” option of quitting the European Union. And she adopts a stance known as “de-demonisation” to blunt accusations that she and her colleagues are overtly racist.
Critics dismiss this as a ploy. One of the most influential cultural figures in France today, national football captain Kylian Mbappé, urges voters to reject the National Rally “extremists”. But there is a clear strategy by Le Pen and her party to position themselves as social conservatives who can run the country without tearing it apart – the approach that helped Giorgia Meloni win power in Italy.
Can a radical become palatable? Can an extremist become acceptable? The concept of what is “far right” will change if the voters of France, Germany and Britain redefine what mainstream is. And Pauline Hanson will be watching.
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How popular are the populists? For Nigel Farage and his right-wing friends, it’s finding-out time
