Binyamin Netanyahu is down—but not out

In recent days Mr Netanyahu has been able to claim some successes. On March 30th the Knesset passed the annual state budget, a rare feat for an Israeli government ahead of an election. Mr Netanyahu secured his coalition’s vote by stuffing the budget with handouts for religious communities and West Bank settlers, crucial constituencies of his partners. Passing the budget means he and his coalition will probably serve their full four-year parliamentary term, another rarity. Few would have predicted such an outcome after the attacks of October 7th 2023, which were viewed by Israelis as one of the worst security failures in their country’s history.

Likud, his party, has even seen a small boost in the polls in recent weeks. But not a large enough one to secure the re-election of this government, or indeed any led by Mr Netanyahu. Moreover, some of Likud’s gains have come at the expense of allies. Most polls give the ruling coalition 52 or 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. The prime minister’s partners, especially ultra-Orthodox parties, are deeply unpopular, owing to their insistence that young religious men be exempt from military service. Another of Mr Netanyahu’s allies, the Religious Zionism party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, his finance minister, is predicted to fall below the electoral threshold of 3.25% of the vote. The coalition may have united to vote for the budget, and to pass a law imposing the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis, but it is squabbling over other pieces of legislation.

Mr Netanyahu must hope his opposition remains even more fragmented than his own camp. One of the opposition parties joined his coalition in 2024. The six still in the Knesset struggle to work together. At least three more are preparing to contest the forthcoming elections. Israel’s system of proportional representation favours larger parties and Mr Netanyahu has a proven record of persuading his allies to set aside their differences and run on joint lists.

Better still for Mr Netayahu, the opposition has no clear candidate for prime minister. At the last election, in November 2022, a centrist outfit led by Yair Lapid, a former prime minister, emerged as the main opposition. Since then, however, it has slumped in the polls. In 2023 Benny Gantz, a former general who temporarily joined the government after the attacks of October 7th, was the frontrunner to replace Mr Netanyahu. But his equivocation, especially on questions about how to run the war in Gaza, and his reluctance to confront Mr Netanyahu, cost him support. His party now fails to clear the electoral threshold.

Over the course of the past year, Naftali Bennett, another former prime minister, rose in the polls and seemed to be on course to challenge Mr Netanyahu. Mr Bennett, despite his right-wing views, has long been a bitter rival to Mr Netanyahu. In recent weeks, however, Mr Bennett’s party has been losing ground to one led by Gadi Eisenkot, yet another centrist former general who has set up his own party.

Even if these disparate parties can coalesce around a leader, and even if they win a majority in the Knesset, they will struggle to form a government. Mr Netanyahu’s coalition includes hard-right and ultra-religious parties that are broadly aligned on policy. The opposition parties, by contrast, range from nationalists to conservative Islamists and Arab communists. They are unlikely to govern together.

So Mr Netanyahu still has a chance to hold on to power, even if Likud falls short of a majority. And if America and Israel emerge victorious—unlikely as it now seems—his standing will rise and his re-election will look far more likely. A dismal stalemate that leaves the Iranian regime entrenched would be disastrous for his electoral prospects. Here Mr Trump has the advantage: he can declare victory and an end to the war when it suits his own political interests, not Mr Netanyahu’s.