China’s ability to militarily strike Australia will grow markedly over the next decade, though the most immediate threats will come through cyberattacks and the cutting of undersea communications cables, a report from the Lowy Institute think tank said on Monday.
A new long-range stealth bomber currently under development and the possible deployment of missiles and aircraft to bases closer to Australia could “quickly and dramatically” increase the long-term threat, the Sydney-based non-partisan think tank said.
“China has actively sought basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018. Any such base would bring central Australia within bomber combat range and allow attacks to be mounted more frequently,” the report said.
Near-term threats do not require conventional weapons, as China possesses strong capabilities to disrupt Australia’s maritime trade through chokepoints in the Indonesian archipelago.
The report said China can already strike northern Australia with missiles deployed to its South China Sea outposts.
The Chinese embassy in Australia did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for almost a third of Australia’s exports. Diplomatic relations deteriorated after 2018 over several issues, with Beijing imposing sanctions on Australian exports, but ties have improved since the Labor government returned to power in 2022.
However, Australia remains wary of China’s expanding influence in the Pacific as Canberra pursues security deals with Pacific nations to prevent Beijing from establishing any permanent military presence in the region. The southern Pacific has long been considered within the sphere of influence of Australia and its ally, the United States.
“China’s military build-up is reshaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power in ways that affect Australian security regardless of China’s ability to strike Australian territory,” the Lowy Institute said.
Within the strategically located Pacific, the Solomon Islands is seen by analysts as the nation with the closest ties to Beijing after signing a security pact with China in 2022, prompting concern from the U.S. and intensifying Australia’s diplomatic efforts.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, on an official trip to Australia earlier this month, said his country would negotiate a comprehensive strategic treaty with Australia and review the China security agreement.
© Thomson Reuters 2026.
