An issue we’ve been reporting alongside our coverage of the war in Gaza in this blog is the question of Hezbollah limiting its arms.
The Lebanese militant group – which is separate from the government – is under pressure from Beirut and Washington to disarm.
This would be a significant development, given the group’s stated support for Gaza and longstanding opposition to Israel.
Lebanon’s cabinet yesterday tasked the army with drawing up a plan to establish a state monopoly on arms by the end of the year – something Hezbollah warns would be a “grave sin” only serving Israel.
So, why is this happening now?
Hezbollah was left reeling after Israel killed much of its top brass last year, before a US-brokered truce officially brought that fighting to an end in November.
That deal committed Lebanon to restricting arms to six specific state security forces, and stipulated it should confiscate unauthorised weapons and prevent rearmament by non-state groups – Hezbollah being one.
Despite that ceasefire, Israel has continued strikes on what it says are Hezbollah arms depots and fighters, mostly in southern Lebanon.
In June, US envoy Thomas Barrack put forward a roadmap to Lebanese officials to fully disarm Hezbollah.
That would be in exchange for Israel halting its strikes on Lebanon and withdrawing troops from five points they still occupy.
Fears of backlash
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem rejected each clause in Barrack’s roadmap.
And looming over any bid to force Hezbollah to disarm is the memory of previous bouts of civil unrest.
Political complication
Moreover, Lebanon’s power-sharing system adds to the obstacles.
This is a system that apportions public sector posts – including in parliament and the cabinet – to different religious sects.
This is meant to ensure no sect is left out of decisions, but critics say it causes political paralysis.
Shi’ite representation is dominated by Hezbollah and its political ally Amal.
Key deadlines
But this month could be key, with the cabinet giving the army a deadline of the end of August to submit a disarmament plan.
Tomorrow, another session is scheduled to discuss Barrack’s proposal.
Some Lebanese parties may try to find a workaround that avoids a confrontation between Hezbollah and the state.
