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Japanese PM's election gamble set to pay off

Japanese PM’s election gamble set to pay off

Posted on 8 February 2026 By jobuzo

Japan’s ultra conservative prime minister is set to seize more power after an exit poll suggested she has secured a big majority in the lower house following a snap election.

Sanae Takaichi’s coalition is predicted to win between 302 and 366 of the 465 seats in the chamber, according to national broadcaster NHK.

That is well above the 233 needed for a majority.

In tandem with their coalition partners, her government is actually projected to have a two-thirds majority in the house, the NHK decision desk says.

Image:
Sanae Takaichi. Pic: AP

It comes after Ms Takaichi, 64, called the winter election, seeking to capitalise on her own high approval ratings.

Betting on herself, she pledged to secure a majority or step down.

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A former heavy metal drummer, she says immigration and tourism has led to “foreigner fatigue” in Japan, and her nationalist rhetoric has stoked tensions with China.

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She’s also anti-gay marriage and a vocal defender of traditional gender roles, and sees late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher as a role model.

Furthermore, her government plans to step away from Japan’s post-war pacifist principles, bolstering the military and lifting a ban on weapons exports.

Ms Takaichi became the nation’s first female prime minister in October, pledging to “work, work, work” and nurturing an upbeat image.

Ms Takaichi playing the drums with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Ms Takaichi playing the drums with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. Pic: Reuters

She’s won support among younger voters and her personal style has been praised by fans, with admirers now facing a nine-month wait to purchase her signature Hamano black bag.

And she’s curried favour with Donald Trump; he appeared alongside her during a visit last year, gave her his endorsement, and called her a “winner”, before saying they were “very close friends”.

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Read more:
Japan’s drum-playing, Trump-hugging, China-provoking PM
Can Japan’s first female PM tighten her grip on power

Ms Takaichi with President Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Ms Takaichi with President Trump. Pic: Reuters

She became prime minister after taking charge of the struggling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), whose fortunes she is credited with transforming.

The party had grown accustomed to power, having governed almost continuously since its foundation in 1955, except for two brief windows – from 1993 to 1996, and from 2009 to 2012.

But it suffered setbacks in recent years, enduring one of its worst electoral performances ever in 2024 amid a backdrop of a financial scandal and economic stagnation, and losing its majority in the lower house.

The lower house, or House of Representatives, is the more powerful of the two chambers that comprise the National Diet – the Japanese equivalent of parliament.

Since last year, Ms Taikichi’s LDP has governed in coalition with its junior partner, the Japan Innovation Party, also known as Ishin.

A cardboard cutout of Ms Takaichi
Image:
A cardboard cutout of Ms Takaichi

A stronger hand in the lower house will empower her government to make progress on its right-wing agenda, including passing a record-setting 122.3 trillion yen (£571bn) budget.

And with the projected two-thirds majority, she can override the Diet’s upper chamber, the House of Councillors, which she does not control.

US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, reacting to the result on Fox News, called the prime minster “a great ally” and said she had a “great ‍relationship with the president”.

Lai Ching-te, president of Taiwan, offered his “heartfelt congratulations” in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

He added: “May your victory bring an even more prosperous and secure future for Japan and its regional partners.”

Japanese PM’s election gamble set to pay off


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