Russia is redeploying forces in a way that indicates an autumn offensive will focus on efforts to seize the rest of the Donbas, according to military analysts.
The Russian military command has reportedly moved relatively elite naval infantry and airborne forces to the Donetsk region from the Sumy and Kherson regions, the Institute for the Study of War said.
It looks as though these troops will concentrate on Dobropillya, Pokrovsk, and Kostyantynivka in an attempt to take the 30% of Donetsk still held by Kyiv, the US-based think tank said.
Donetsk and Luhansk make up the Donbas, control of which Vladimir Putin has made a key war goal and condition of any peace deal. Russia already controls 99.7% of Luhansk.
“The Russian command’s redeployment of forces from northern Sumy Oblast to Donetsk Oblast suggests that Russia is deprioritising its offensive operations in Sumy Oblast,” the ISW said.
“Russian forces have intensified efforts to envelop Pokrovsk, advance toward Dobropillya, and bypass Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast fortress belt from the west.
“These efforts have resulted in significant manpower losses, likely requiring the Russian military command to redeploy forces to the area.”
