- A French appeals court will decide whether Marine Le Pen can run in next year’s presidential election after her fake jobs conviction.
- If barred from office or restricted by house arrest, Le Pen says National Rally leader Jordan Bardella will lead the campaign instead.
- Polls show the far right remains competitive, but Le Pen’s eligibility could significantly reshape France’s 2027 presidential race.
PARIS, July 7 — France’s far-right chief Marine Le Pen is bracing for a key verdict on Tuesday that will determine if she can run in next year’s presidential elections, when her party has its best chance yet of winning power.
A lower court last year sentenced Le Pen, 57, to a five-year ban from public office and two years in prison over a fake jobs scam at the European Parliament.
If the appeals court upholds that ruling, it will be a devastating blow to the three-time presidential candidate’s hopes to replace outgoing centrist President Emmanuel Macron.
The decision, expected to be read out from 1:30 pm (1130 GMT), could also find her guilty but include a shorter ban from public office and some form of house arrest.
If the sentence prevents her from campaigning, she has said she will hand over to her 30-year-old lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, the leader of their National Rally (RN) party.
“We will never be discouraged, we will always fight,” she told crowds at a party event at the weekend.
Le Pen came third in the 2012 election, then twice made it to a runoff against Macron, in 2017 and 2022.
“I’m not scared,” she said last week.
“If I can run, I will – as long as I can campaign.”
‘Witch hunt’
The first trial found Le Pen – along with 24 former European lawmakers, assistants and accountants, as well as the anti-immigration party itself – guilty of operating a system from 2004 to 2016 to use European Parliament funds to employ RN staff in France.
The lower court also sentenced Le Pen to four years in jail, with two suspended.
Le Pen claimed her party was the victim of a “witch hunt”, and some supporters sent the judges death threats.
The presidential candidate, the party and 10 others appealed.
During the appeal trial, she denied that the RN had a system to embezzle European Parliament funds, and has said her party acted in “complete good faith”.
But prosecutors allege she “professionalised” a way to divert EU funds first introduced haphazardly by her late father, party co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, after she took over its leadership from him in 2011.
They have demanded the court maintain a five-year ban and sought a four-year term, with three years suspended.
‘Very intelligent’
If Le Pen is banned from office for years, she will not be able to run for president in time for the first round on April 18 next year.
Similarly, if she is condemned to serve a one-year term on house arrest with an ankle tag, crippling her ability to campaign, she will likely decide to hand over to Bardella.
Opinion polls in recent months have largely suggested the far right will lead in the first round of next year’s vote, but are divided on the outcome of the second round.
Many have shown slightly better results for Bardella than Le Pen, but their adversaries have inferred the veteran politician would be a fiercer opponent.
“This woman is very intelligent, she’s not here by chance. And if she does also run for a fourth time, she won’t be an opponent we can sneer at,” hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has said.
An opinion poll in late May suggested Le Pen could win the runoffs next year if she is allowed to compete.
The Harris Interactive Toluna survey of more than 1,700 registered voters projected her winning, against Melenchon as well as centrist former prime ministers Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe.
Other polls have however suggested Philippe – who is also courting right-wing voters – could emerge victorious in a runoff against the far right. — AFP
Marine Le Pen decision: How a prison sentence could block the French far right’s path to power
