Analysis: Putin’s word and Trump’s reliability – the wing and a prayer peace plan
By Mark Stone, US correspondent
When news of this 28-point peace plan began to emerge two days ago, I spoke to several sources within European governments. It was immediately clear that they were on the back foot.
“Sounds over-briefed by the Russians… but enough for us to do some digging,” one source said.
Another source described it as a “manoeuvre”, saying that the plan essentially read as an evolution of Russian attempts to play the US government.
Since then, from European leader level down, there has been frantic engagement to formulate a united response to what appears to be an unofficial Russian-US plan.
The two men leading talks
It’s worth remembering that the two men at the heart of this document – the American Steve Witkoff, and the Russian Kirill Dmitriev – are not diplomats.
They are the unlikely yin and yang of the US-Russian power struggle right now: Witkoff, the real estate mogul and Dmitriev, the economist – both trusted by their leaders and now hammering out the post-Cold War order.
The dominant theory is that the Russian envoy Dmitriev leaked out this 28-point plan two days ago to get ahead of whatever negotiation now follows; to set out their position first.
It’s probable the Americans knew it would be leaked.
It’s in keeping with President Trump’s “art of the deal” style, to present an outlandish idea to make whatever finally emerges seem reasonable.
He did just the same with Gaza. It’s Trump dealmaking 101.
Zelenskyy’s diplo-double-speak
It’s notable that President Zelenskyy’s response to this 28-point plan has been measured, despite it representing (in its current form) near total capitulation.
It was a similar surrender plan that caused Zelenskyy’s Oval Office meltdown in February. He knows now not to upset the American President.
So his response felt to me to be full of diplo-double-speak.
It was carefully crafted so not to be seen as a rejection. The Ukrainian representative at the United Nations was more explicit.
“While Ukraine stands ready to engage in meaningful negotiations to end this war – including at the leaders’ level – our red lines are clear and unwavering,” Ukraine’s Deputy Ambassador to the UN Khrystyna Hayovyshyn said, adding: “There will never be any recognition, formal or otherwise, of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian. Our land is not for sale.”
Amateur draft
The actual text of the plan feels amateurish in its drafting. It’s full of gaping ambiguities, it’s open to breathtaking interpretation and it fundamentally undermines the efforts of the European-based “coalition of the willing”.
Also – quite apart from it being unacceptable in so many ways to Ukraine – in numerous parts it is also surely unacceptable to Vladimir Putin.
Take, for example, the clause that says that Russia’s frozen assets go to Ukraine (with a heist-like American kickback). Really?
There are also elements of the plan that would necessarily require approval from a much wider range of parties.
For example, to re-admit Russia into what would become the G8 once again requires approval of all the other G7 members.
At the heart of the peace plan is the word of Vladimir Putin and the reliability of Donald Trump. It’s written on a wing and a prayer.
