During Russia’s attacks overnight, almost all of Ukraine was under an air raid alert.
That triggered Poland, which borders Ukraine in the west, into action – with its air force brought into “the highest state of readiness” to protect its airspace(see 7:30).
Nothing escalated beyond that, but the Poles may well have had good reason to be on such high alert, according to earlier analysis from our military expert Michael Clarke.
In his weekly Q&A this week, he was asked if fears of a Russian attack in Europe are hysterical.
“I don’t think it’s hysteria,” he responded.
“It is what is known in government as a reasonable worst-case scenario.”
Vladimir Putin has made clear his designs on the Baltic states, the Scandinavian countries and in southeastern Europe, said Clarke.
“They talk about the recreation of Russia’s imperial territories as well as restoring influence within the old Soviet empire, which covers central Asia as well.”
Greater forces
They have an army that has expanded from 250,000 soldiers to 1.5 million and it has been mobilised.
“So if the war in Ukraine came to an end this week, the Russians have got a real problem. What are they going to do with this army?
“Are they going to send everybody home with weapons and cash looking for work, looking for something to do?”
Then there’s the momentum of an economy built around the war.
NATO preparation
“So we know that if the war in Ukraine came to an end… then you’ve got a big army with a big economy behind it that’s converted to a war economy; an aggressive leader who has a sense of destiny, who thinks that that momentum is on his side, and who has said repeatedly that ‘I will have all of Ukraine’. He’s also said ‘wherever the Russian soldier treads is Russian territory’.”
NATO has taken the view that it must be prepared to fight a war with Russia in order to deter one, Clarke added.
“If you look as if you’re ready to fight, chances are you won’t have to.”
For his full insight on this and other issues in the war, watch his Q&A below
