Bets placed around the December 3 US military operation in Venezuela, which saw the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, recently led to online traders earning huge sums of money as profits.
A newly created trading account on Polymarket allegedly bet $30,000 (about Rs 27 lakh) on Maduro’s exit hours before US President Donald Trump announced the capture, sparking concerns of insider trading.
Within 24 hours, the bet on the blockchain-based prediction market reportedly paid out $436,759.61 (about Rs 3.93 crore), an Axios report said.
Insider trading is when traders with inside information use it to place bets that have a more assured outcome, giving them an unfair advantage over others that might not be in the know.
The report added that the question, ‘Maduro in US custody by January 31?’, had also begun trending on Polymarket by late Friday, after it had been stale for the past few weeks. It spiked early on Saturday, at around the time Trump announced the US extraction of Maduro.
One Polymarket trader told The Wall Street Journal that they had earned about $80,000 (about Rs 72 lakh) after noticing a spike in late-night food orders from Domino’s Pizza outlets near the Pentagon.
Such activity is often perceived by traders as possible hints of increased staff taking care of vital operations that cannot wait for the next day. They then use these cues as context to make betting decisions.
In that regard, though it is quite normal for insiders to emerge in the field of prediction markets, many users were still surprised by the bet, and how much the trader who predicted the Venezuela capture earned from it.
“With only 4 predictions he turned his $30K into half a million dollars. It’s pretty obvious he is from the trump office milking Polymarket for quick money,” an X user speculated.
“When you have inside information—or the right friends—a 6 per cent probability looks very different,” another X user mused.
“Prediction markets are supposed to have insiders. Their goal isn’t to entertain degenerates, their goal is to power a “truth machine,” a Redditor claimed.
Trader bets $30,000 on US bombing Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro exit; earns THIS within 24 hours
