The overall average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. has reached 18.3 percent by July 31, 2025, the highest level since 1934, according to latest estimates of the Budget Lab at Yale University on Friday.
The tariffs will reduce real U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in both 2025 and 2026, according to the lab.
The study also forecasts that the tariffs will cause the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025, and by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026.
For consumers, the tariffs are expected to increase the average household’s annual spending by $2,400 in 2025. The impact will be most severe for clothing and footwear, with short-term price hikes of 40 percent for shoes and 38 percent for apparel. In the long run, prices for these items are projected to remain higher by 19 precent and 17 percent, respectively.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to change tariff rates with 69 trading partners.
The order, which is set to take effect on August 7, will impose new tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 40 percent on goods from those economies, a move that has drawn global criticism.
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