The United States has paused its airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of escalating bombardment, while diplomatic efforts have gained momentum in an attempt to prevent the conflict from spiraling back into all-out war. However, experts said the prospects for a lasting ceasefire remain bleak.
The US military said on Saturday its naval blockade against Iran “remains in full effect” but did not explain why it halted 13 consecutive nights of escalating strikes.
There were also no weekend reports of attacks by Iran on neighbors, similar to its daily rejoinders to the US attacks.
Asked about the pause, a senior US official said US President Donald Trump “has always been clear that his preference is diplomacy, but he has shown Iran what will happen if they fail to come to the table in a serious way”.
Trump has decided, for now, to back away from plans to ramp up attacks on Iran, The New York Times said on Saturday, citing two people briefed on the discussion.
The president and his advisers, the newspaper said, have concerns about expanding the conflict, depleting defense stockpiles, alienating the Middle East Gulf allies and affecting energy supplies and the global economy.
Separately, Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea on Saturday, saying one sailor was killed and another injured.
The ministry summoned Ukraine’s charge d’affaires in Tehran to protest over the attack it described as “hostile and criminal”, state news agency IRNA said.
On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, confirmed that Iran and Oman had held several rounds of technical talks about the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
He said that while the Omani delegation left Tehran on Saturday afternoon, the talks had made progress and were continuing.
Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he was hesitant to read too much into the lull in fighting.
“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant,” he told ABC News. “But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”
Ding Long, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University’s Middle East Studies Institute, said that neither the US nor Iran can afford an all-out war, making cycles of confrontation and diplomatic negotiations the new normal.
He said Iran needs sanctions relief to ease mounting economic pressure, while the US seeks to safeguard at least partial access to key shipping lanes and avoid becoming entangled in another protracted conflict during an election year.
“These considerations provide a strong incentive for both sides to pursue negotiations and compromise,” he said.
The course of the conflict will depend on several key variables, including battlefield casualties, soaring oil prices and their impact on US inflation and the midterm elections, whether Israel opts for unilateral escalation, and mediation efforts by regional actors and the broader international community, Ding said.
Risk of escalation
The conflict still carries a significant risk of further escalation, and ceasefire prospects remain fragile, said Yang Guang, an assistant professor at the Institute for International and Area Studies at Tsinghua University.
Any major escalation, such as US strikes on coastal targets or nuclear facilities that result in heavy casualties, or Iranian retaliation against the energy infrastructure of Gulf oil-producing countries, could push the conflict beyond its current level of containment, he said.
“Mediation channels have not been closed. Communication mechanisms with Pakistan, Qatar, Oman and other stakeholders remain in place. Iran has also suggested that future arrangements for navigation through the strait could be negotiated among the coastal states, indicating that there is still room for deescalation,” Yang said.
Whether Israel chooses to become directly involved will be a critical factor in the next phase of the conflict. Any such move would likely trigger a stronger military response from Iran, increasing the risk of further escalation, he said.
Ding from Shanghai said the conflict has fundamentally shaken the Gulf states’ confidence in the US as a security guarantor, dealing a severe blow to the long-standing “oil-for-security” arrangement.
Gulf states are no longer relying solely on the US for their security and are accelerating efforts to diversify their security partnerships. At the same time, the Gulf Cooperation Council may revisit the concept of collective security. However, deep divisions among its members have so far prevented the bloc from establishing a unified security framework, he said.
Agencies contributed to this story.
US pauses airstrikes on Iran
