Analysis: There’s only one way Ukraine can deter Russia if it gives up the Donbas
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has just confirmed that territorial issues still remain “under discussion” in peace negotiations, as we reported at 16.10.
The US has apparently proposed the creation of a “free economic zone” in the area of the Donbas it wants Ukraine to withdraw from.
Our military analyst Michael Clarke has just addressed the possibility of Ukraine giving up the Donbas in his weekly Q&A.
He says there is “no physical solution” to protecting Ukraine against another Russian attack if it gives up its fortress cities in the Donbas.
Even minefields could only slow an attacker down but not stop them, Clarke says.
He says there is only one solution:
“The only thing that would stop Russia is deterrence: the knowledge that either the European forces were sitting in Ukraine ready to fight for them, which is hard to imagine at the moment, and even harder to imagine that they are backed up by American forces.”
“If Ukraine gives up the fortress cities in the Donbas, the only security they can have is by being heavily armed and being backed by their allies in some way.”
American military support is implausible by now, he says, however.
Even a wider security guarantee, backed by European forces, is “a long term aspiration”, that cannot be achieved by the spring of next year, he adds.
Catch up with the full Q&A here…
