When India rolled red carpet for Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, it was a message to the West that it had no intention to turn its back to long-time ally Russia. However, the much-publicised visit was heavily in India’s favour, according to an expert, who believes India “cunningly used Vladimir Putin to achieve its objective”.
According to Ukrainian political scientist Taras Zagorodni, Russia is finding itself in a difficult situation due to the fall in oil prices. The situation is so critical that Putin has introduced tax breaks for Rosneft and Gazprom. This visit, Zagorodniy believe, is aimed at coaxing India to keep buying Russian oil, after New Delhi was forced to cut down on the same due to US sanctions.
Zagorodniy told Channel 24 that India, realising Russia’s desperation, will demand even greater discounts and concessions, possibly even access to military technology. Currently, oil prices for Russians, with discounts, are around $40-$45 per barrel. There have been instances of oil being sold at $36.60. Analysts predict a further price decline next year.
“Russia will try to negotiate with India in a ‘brotherly’ manner, expecting loyalty. It will have to offer additional concessions, including risk discounts, due to pressure from Trump and other factors. At the same time, the question remains: in what volumes and at what price will Moscow be able to sell oil? And logistics are important here,” Zagorodniy noted.
However, the Indians will most likely put forward tough conditions, and Russia will not expect much profit from such deals, he said.
The expert said that though Russian propaganda tries to portray Putin as important, internationally, especially in India and China, he is perceived as subordinate or “ridiculous.”
“Russia has found itself in the humiliating position of trying to trade access to strategic military technologies, particularly nuclear submarines, which were previously its trump card.”
Zagorodniy emphasised.
However, another analyst believes the visit was optically in favour of Russia. Analyst Mark Galeotti, in a piece that appeared in The Times, quoted a US diplomat who expressed confidence that India and Russia were pretty savvy when it comes to finding workarounds. “Soon enough, we’ll see imports ostensibly from third parties that are really from Russia,” he said.
While Putin was eager to portray Western efforts to isolate Russia as a failure, the warm welcome he received in India undermines the image of Russia as a pariah. “Russia’s strengthening ties with India also indirectly push back against the perception that it is becoming a vassal of China,” Galeotti writes.
He also notes that French President Emmanuel Macron, while visiting China, had hoped to persuade Chinese leader Xi Jinping to pressure Putin into ending the war. Those hopes, Galeotti writes, appear to have gone nowhere — and Moscow is no doubt pleased by that. “The higher Putin assesses Russia’s position both on the battlefield and in the world, the less pressure he feels to reach a deal,” Galeotti concludes.
