Putin likely planning involuntary call-ups – and doing so from ‘place of weakness’
New analysis suggests Vladimir Putin is putting plans in place to force Russians to the frontline.
In a bid to mitigate battlefield losses, the Institute for the Study of War believes Moscow adopted a bill yesterday to give the power to “prosecute Russians who criticise involuntary reserve call-ups”.
The deputy chair of Russia’s committee on security and anti-corruption said this bill’s primary objective is to make the public think of evading service to the Russian “motherland” as “socially unacceptable”.
The Kremlin has also throttled social media messaging app Telegram in recent days, likely to control the flow of information and limit criticisms of the war effort, the ISW said.
The thinktank argued the Kremlin has been setting the conditions for this since at least October last year, adding:
“Putin likely aims to use these limited call-ups to maintain Russia’s loss rates and the current tempo of offensive operations – not to significantly build up the Russian force grouping fighting in Ukraine and flood the front with more forces.”
And here’s the key:
Putin is resorting to preparations for further involuntary reserve call-ups from a place of weakness, as Russia is likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near exhaustion of its expensive voluntary recruitment system in 2026.
Putin has long been trying to balance “butter and guns”, the ISW added.
“The Russian military must simultaneously maintain its force generation mechanisms to, at a minimum, replace Russia’s battlefield losses,” its report stated.
“Russian officials have indicated that Russia’s recruitment rate has been barely able to replace its monthly loss rates for much of the war, but Russia’s ability to recruit volunteers to fight in Ukraine appears to be slowing.”
Last week, Bloomberg cited Western officials in its report claiming Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield casualties than it was able to replace in January 2026.
The ISW explained:
The Russian military’s ability to replace its losses is crucial for Putin’s theory of victory, which rests on the assumption that the Russian military can maintain its current advances, albeit slow and grinding, long enough to outlast Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and the West’s willingness to support Ukraine.
Watch: Russia and Ukraine ‘playing for reaction’ from White House
The Kremlin, it added, is likely pushing for Ukraine to “capitulate to Russia’s long-held demands… imminently to secure its war aims without having to make uncomfortable sacrifices to do so”.
Read the ISW’s latest report here.
